If you don’t recall the 2008 presidential campaign, the contestants were opposites in many ways; old white man versus young mulatto was only the beginning of the contrast. But as regards their campaign platforms, both were moderately specific and moderately cagy. No doubt their campaign advisors had counseled them to avoid too many details in their statements to the public and the press. Even so, their ideologies appeared to be plain enough.
Today’s opponents present what might be the sharpest contrast in philosophies of governance since William Jennings Bryan faced off against William McKinley. President Trump has been highly forthcoming about his plans for his second term; Kamala Harris has campaigned on fluffy abstractions. In a way, the Harris campaign’s avoidance of details about what a Harris Administration would undertake is a defensive strategy. As she’s been an integral part of the Biden regime, it’s already possible to attack her on that record. But as vice-presidents traditionally have had little to no role in actual governance, she can claim to be “a new broom” without utter risibility, as long as she doesn’t become candid about her actual plans.
This is campaign strategy uber alles. You could say its ruling principle is “win first, govern later.” The question of the hour is whether Harris can avoid being tarred with the failures of the sitting president… which is not at all certain.
Harris’s allies in the media have cooperated with her strategy to this point. She’s taken some body blows – the debate of the vice-presidential candidates was among the worst of them – but the polls don’t suggest that any of them have been near to mortal. If those polls are reasonably accurate, her strategists can claim to have made the right call. On the basis of the popular vote alone, the election is too close to call.
But the popular vote isn’t what matters.
Harris’s popular vote strength resides in the Pacific Coast states, the New England states, and Illinois. But an excess of votes in those states won’t win her any extra votes in the Electoral College. President Trump’s popularity in the “Rust Belt” states will be exceedingly difficult for Harris to overcome. The handful of “swing states” are all too close to call. If the polls in those states have oversampled Democrat loyalists, Trump could win with a substantial Electoral College vote margin.
We may be looking, for the third time since 2000, at a presidential election in which the popular vote margin goes to the loser. That will raise a hue and cry from coast to coast. The talking heads will raise all sorts of objections to a “minority vote president.” Mainstream media pundits will deny that Trump has a mandate to govern. The proponents of the National Popular Vote Compact will be on the march immediately. Conspiracies, both old and new, will be alleged. Lawfare will once again be waged, as the Left is never willing to accept a defeat gracefully.
But perhaps the most important consequences would be at the level of individuals and their relations. Democrats already have already proclaimed Trump to be the essence of villainy. How they would treat those of us in the Right, who supported President Trump and were cheered by his victory, is uncertain, but doubtful to be benign. The polarization of the American populace would be driven to new extremes.
There were outbreaks of civil disorder during the Obama-to-Trump transition period, but mostly they were limited both in space and time. Much has happened since then, none of it conducive to more public calm. In particular, the race-hustlers will do their best to whip up a frenzy over the “old white man” defeating the “young(er) black woman.” The civil-service unions will formulate plans to oppose Trump’s program of government downsizing. The defense barons will be livid at the prospect of a second Trump Peace.
All of which sums to this:
Clean and oil your guns.
Know where they are.
And buy ammo.
Gave you a magic bullet on a little chain.
Keep you safe from the chilly winds and the howl of the rain.
We’re gonna might need bullets, should we get stuck.
Any which way, we’re gonna need a little luck.