A Man Who Predicts Successfully…

     …should be listened to with attention.

     At Liberty’s Torch V1.0, I made use of this passage from The Black Cloud several times:

     “It looks to me as if those perturbations of the rockets must have been deliberately engineered,” began Weichart.
     “Why do you say that, Dave?” asked Marlowe.
     “Well, the probability of three cities being hit by a hundred-odd rockets moving at random is obviously very small. Therefore I conclude that the rockets were not perturbed at random. I think they must have been deliberately guided to give direct hits.”
     “There’s something of an objection to that,” argued McNeil. “If the rockets were deliberately guided, how is it that only three of ’em found their targets?”
     “Maybe only three were guided, or maybe the guiding wasn’t all that good. I wouldn’t know.”
     There was a derisive laugh from Alexandrov.
     “Bloody argument,” he asserted.
     “What d’you mean, ‘bloody’ argument?”
     “Invent bloody argument, like this. Golfer hits ball. Ball lands on tuft of grass — so. Probability ball landed on tuft very small, very very small. Million other tufts for ball to land on. Probability very small, very, very very small. So golfer did not hit ball, ball deliberately guided onto tuft. Is bloody argument, yes? Like Weichart’s argument….Must say what damn target is before shoot, not after shoot. Put shirt on before, not after event.”

     Physicist Alexandrov is making a critical point, one that’s at the heart of scientific inquiry:

Only the successful prediction
Of specific consequences
Can confirm a hypothesis.

     While politics, strictly speaking, is not a science –ignore the protests of the twerp in the bleachers ranting about his degree in “political science” — the psychology of the power-monger is one that can be subjected to quasi-scientific scrutiny. The gentleman in the video below, of whom I knew nothing before this, appears to have done so:

     (Many thanks to Ragin’ Dave for the above video.)

     He predicted the sequence of events rather accurately, didn’t he? Moreover, his prediction illuminates the objective of power-monger everywhere: Induce submission by whatever means are expedient. Unreasoning, counterfactual fear of the Kung Flu / Chinese Lung Rot / COVID-19 has been the principal tool of power-mongers in North America for more than a year.

     Draw the moral, Gentle Reader. He who wants you to fear is not your friend, regardless of his representations to the contrary. Following his “advice” is unlikely to make you freer, healthier, or otherwise better off. That goes double for his “mandates.”


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    • Hoagie on July 30, 2021 at 8:15 AM

    That guy is damn near a prophet.

  1. Only the successful prediction
    Of specific consequences
    Can confirm a hypothesis.

    This is one of the primary reasons why I am no longer a “climate change” alarmist.

    • jwm on July 30, 2021 at 3:49 PM

    “This is never going to end.”

    This realization hit me as soon as I started hearing about the delta variant bullshit.

    And it hit me like a punch in the gut. I’ve been following Briggs every week on this. And Barnhardt. I’m taking my ivermectin. I’m leaning hard on  prayer, and what faith I have, but the hope that we’ll see and end to this in our lifetimes is dead. The bleakness is nearly overwhelming. But we have to fight the darkness where we meet it. I’ve retreated to my art work. Twenty years ago, I engaged in the stone work with a sense of optimism and hope. I’d make cool, beautiful things. People would maybe even buy them. I’d create a little beauty in the world.  Now every stroke of the rasp, every rub of the polish is an act of defiance, a F*CK YOU to the darkness.

    My wife and I are keeping the relations with our friends as close as we can. Friendship and love, too have become our weapons. We have to fight the darkness where we meet it. We’re meeting it here and now: face to face at the desktop, every time  we get near the toxic media, at our feet when we kneel to pray. I’m tired, man. Just tired.



  2. Hmm is anyone else encountering problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I’m trying to figure out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

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