Thinking Ahead

     Roger Kimball is confident. That cheers me quite a lot. Kimball is my current favorite among commentator-prognosticators, as he has a habit of being correct. (He’s also a terrific writer: always both graceful and clear.) That doesn’t mean Trump supporters can relax, of course. It’s still necessary to vote, and to get the vote out. But it does suggest that we should spend a little time thinking beyond the 2025-2028 presidential term.

     According to Wikipedia, J. D. Vance is 40 years old. That’s young for a vice-president, and younger still for a president. At any rate, he’ll be only 44 when the 2028 presidential election is held. If he’s elected president at that time, he would become the third-youngest man ever to occupy the Oval Office. (Theodore Roosevelt was 42; John F. Kennedy was 43.)

     More compelling still, Vance has only been a federal officeholder since 2023. He’s had only two years to make connections and gather allies. If he’s to succeed President Trump in 2028, he’d better spend a good part of the next four years doing so. The alternative is to have the GOP Establishment steamroll him… as you know perfectly well the Old Guard in the Republican Party will try to do.

     The Bushes, the McConnells, and the rest of the GOP kingmakers have no love for Trump. They accepted him as the party’s standard-bearer because they had no choice in the matter. But they haven’t changed their spots. Vance would have an uphill battle to attain the 2028 nomination. He’d need his own, popular base of support – and while he might inherit part or all of Trump’s base, he can’t count on anything beyond that. The Old Guard will be doing its damnedest to recapture control of the GOP once Trump is gone.

     So once the election is behind us, it will be time to “prep” Vance: to build him up as the logical, even inevitable successor to President Trump. There’s a delicate dance involved, as the focus, quite properly, must remain on Trump himself as he strives to right the leaking American ship of state. Moreover, Vance and his boosters will not be operating in a completely benign political environment. He’ll have to face rivals for the nomination, some of whom would be backed by the Old Guard.

     It’s worth thinking about this. There’s a lot of work involved in developing a national image and national support for a politician. Reaching the vice-presidency, history tells us, isn’t a free ride to the presidency thereafter. One swallow, as we say here on Long Island, does not an Iced Tea make.