In July of 2023 – doesn’t that seem like an eternity ago? – I wrote:
When the members of a society perceive that the dangers to them are increasing, they will contract their loyalties – i.e., they will move their allegiances from larger affinities to smaller ones – in response.
This tribalism dynamic has predictive power of the sociological sort. It doesn’t offer delivery dates, and it can be a bit vague about what tribes will form around what shared characteristics. Yet we see the contractions, and we note how they conform to our own impulses when we sense threats gatherings around us.
Political Establishments visibly obey the dynamic. A few recent examples:
Yes, our Establishment’s attempts to keep Donald Trump out of the White House failed. But that doesn’t mean they’re failing everywhere. Neither does it mean that our Establishmentarians won’t keep trying.
The European Establishments’ behavior can be seen either as a precursor to the sort of atrocities practiced by the Biden Administration or as a reaction to the failure of the American Establishment’s efforts to suppress the populist revolt that elevated Trump and Vance. In any case, it shows plainly that “they’re laagering up.” They see what’s happing on our shores, and are determined to keep it from happening to them. They have tools to wield that are unavailable to our own Establishmentarians, and those extra tools just might carry the day for them.
I feel for our European cousins… those that only want to be left alone, at least. Their governments want to keep them from speaking their minds, and will punish them as harshly as necessary to prevent it. There is no other conceivable reason for the laws against “inciting hatred” on the books of those nations. Nor is there another explanation for the asymmetry with which those laws are applied.
Still, their misfortune is a warning to us. For the moment, we have the protections of the First Amendment. Move swiftly against those who would weaken them.
