Behold. Sudden clarity on the disposition, number, and composition of Russian forces.

This from the Ukrainian Center of Defense Strategies:

According to our estimates, supported by many of the indicators below, a large-scale general military operation can’t take place for at least the next two or three weeks.

As of Jan. 23, we do not observe the required formation of several hundred thousand troops, not only on the border with Ukraine, but also on Russian territory behind the front line.

Besides, we do not see the creation of strategic reserve units, nor the mobilization of the necessary connections and units on the basis of the centers for mobilization deployment.

* * * *

How likely is an invasion in 2022?

In general, a large-scale Russian offensive operation against Ukraine in 2022 seems unlikely according to many indicators, even judging by purely military requirements.[1]

This kind of clarity is not within the capability of U.S. intelligence. No. The best I’ve seen reported in the gutter press is that Russian troops (number, disposition, actual positions quite vague) are “on the border.” But they are not “on the border” they are noticeably distant from it — 150 miles in the case of one location — such that, even if they were formed up with Military Academy of the General Staff perfection with engines idling at this moment there would be a needless abandonment of the element of surprise because of, oh, a five-hour movement to the border. The Russian military — and the military of any competence on the planet — simply would not incorporate a leisurely signaling of intentions into their planning.

Rather, actual Russian military activity looks a lot more like training with an obvious not-so-subtle message that “we’re here” and these units involved are available for other duties. Not that I think that ground forces will lead off any serious attack. Rocket forces a long way from the border and well protected will cripple “NATO” forces in the first 20 minutes of any serious offensive.

Also, TASS reports that:

Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexey Reznikov said early on Tuesday he had received no information so far indicating the possibility of Russia’s invasion of his country in the near future.

“As of today, the armed forces of Russia created no strike groups, indicating they were ready to launch an offensive tomorrow,” he told Ukraine’s ICTV television channel, adding that a scenario of a Russian attack in the near future was also unlikely.[2]

So this is reduced to a tempest in a tea pot as revealed by the very people who are looking down the gun barrel of supposed naked neo-USSR expansionism. Suddenly it’s a non-problem. Obviously a signal and a welcome one at that. Brandon’s got his out.

Just as Bashar al-Assad has and had no reason to use chemical weapons on civilian Syrian targets, so Russians have no need to invade Ukraine and take on an economic and political basketcase populated by a hostile people. However, Russia simply will not tolerate Ukraine’s accession to the ranks of NATO clowns and parasites and it wants only a measure of autonomy for the Russian-speaking population in eastern Ukraine. Nor should it tolerate what the US clearly would not tolerate during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Similarly, it will not tolerate NATO contemptuous assumption that eastern Europe is its exclusive playground, and NATO emplacement of medium-range ballistic missiles in eastern Europe will be prevented or reversed.

In any event, the impending economic disaster that will soon arrive in the U.S. will short circuit all U.S. imperial projects. As always, the Russians need only play a waiting game and watch the U.S. sink ever further into chaos and irrelevance.

All Western powers are advised to get their arrogant selves under control and take care of business at home. If the Siege of Port Arthur (1904) presaged the destructive horror of industrial warfare, the next serious clash of major industrial powers will demonstrate how precision computerized warfare will involve a massive increase in lethality from that seen in that distant but earth shaking battle. Western military observers saw all the slaughter of Port Arthur but, even if they understood the implications, their reports were overlooked or not understood. The European powers sleep walked into the yet more ghastly slaughter of WWI having learned nothing. Westerners are sleep walking now as they seem not to be able to absorb that there has been a massive technological shift. The multilateral world our fools swoon over is here with a vengeance. Reality is set to arrive with a blinding flash soon. But sappy, arrogant Western elites will be caught flat footed.

Even if this were to be plain vanilla, 20th-century slug fest with rocks and ox thigh bones, it’s clear that NATO is setting up any American troops to be deployed anywhere east of the Oder to re-enact the disaster of Task Force Smith in Korea. Our premise for action is wrong, our strategic goal is vague and certainly completely unattainable, our preparations consist of nothing more than speeches and press conferences, preparatory deployments have been nil, and front line troops will be sacrificed piecemeal for no reason.

[1] “A ‘Parthogenetic’ Conflict – There Is No Russian Invasion Threat To Ukraine.” By b, Moon of Alabama, 1/25/22.
[2] Id.


    • SiG on January 27, 2022 at 12:57 PM

    Thanks for pointing out that story on Moon of Alabama.  I hadn’t see this mentioned anywhere.

    Certainly puts a very different light on the Ukraine hoopla.



  1. My pleasure. I read another article yesterday that spoke of the Russian forces being “poised” on the border. Like a diver about to dive off the high board at the swimming pool.

    But the diver’s preparations for his dive are minimal. Simple military movements require complex planning, even simple one. A goes here and B goes there. It doesn’t happen without great effort and coordination and keeping the troops outside in winter preparatory to a road movement at “some time” isn’t good leadership.

    And a disposition of forces right ON the border preparatory to an assault has only one look to any SIGINT or imagery analyst. Which look we are not seeing no matter how much morons talk about Russian forces “massing” “on the border.” Satellite and other surveillance technology makes real-time targeting possible so, in fact, I can’t see why modern armies would do anything but start off serious hostilities with massive long-range preparatory fires to get your opponent’s attention. How far away do U.S. carriers have to be before their sure of not being targeted? And then there’s the report of a Chinese sub surfacing inside a carrier battle group a few years back. I don’t claim to be au courant as far as doctrine is concerned these day but the days of leisurely assembling an invasion force undetected and having them basically opposed by only artillery and infantry once on the march are long gone IMO.

    So the Ukrainian attempt to damp down the Biden-Blinken stupidity only pointed out a portion of the realities that obtain though, of course, they didn’t have to provide a whole TED talk to make a limited but important point.

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