They’re At It Again

     Some of the Establishment’s dance steps are fresh. Others are well rehearsed and easy to recognize:

     Jim Messina, a former top aide to former President Obama, claimed that a “third-party candidate can’t win in 2024” and might guarantee former President Trump does.

     “With a rematch between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump almost set in stone, it’s time to put a farce to rest: The notion that a third-party candidate could actually win the presidency in 2024,” Messina wrote in an op-ed for Politico.

     […]

     “While a third-party candidate can’t win, No Labels could still throw the election to Trump, and it wouldn’t take that many votes,” Messina wrote, explaining that the past two elections indicate that Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin may again swing the election for President Biden or Trump, the current favorite to be his Republican opponent.

     “A No Labels candidate in these states could easily hand the election to Trump,” Messina wrote.

     I recall that the Democrats were happy about the “third party” candidacy of H. Ross Perot in 1992. That candidacy deflected votes mainly from the Republican candidate, incumbent president George H. W. Bush. But then, in 2000, they were unhappy about the “third party” candidacy of Ralph Nader, who deflected votes mainly from the Democrat candidate, Al Gore Jr. So it seems that their tolerance for minor-party participation is a variable thing, according to which candidate they expect to suffer from it.

     In point of fact: A third party candidate can win a federal office. At least, it’s happened in the past. Abraham Lincoln was a third-party candidate for president in 1860. A third party candidate for U.S. Senate, John C. Fremont, won a Senate seat for California in 1850. A third party candidate from Alaska, Andre Marrou, served in Congress from 1985 to 1987. There may have been others; I’m not as informed about such things as I once was.

     In recent years, the stranglehold the major parties have over campaign funding, media exposure, and the Committee on Presidential Debates has made third party presidential candidacies largely an exercise in promoting particular ideas. However, contemporary disgust with both the major parties – you’ve heard them called the “Uniparty,” haven’t you? – could magnify the importance of one or more minor parties. At any rate, Messina’s railing against minor-party candidacies is impotent…for the moment.

     However, I wouldn’t put anything past today’s political Establishment, no matter how low or despicable. Many sitting federal legislators are feeling a cold draft, to say nothing of the Usurper-in-Chief. We may yet see legal challenges and “lawfare” used to hamper or disqualify the candidates of the Libertarian, Green, Right to Life, Constitutional, and Populist parties. Nor would such attacks necessarily come from the Democrats alone. Stay tuned.